Brigadier General John J. Pershing, Commander of American Expeditionary Forces in World War I once famously said, “Infantry wins battles, logistics wins wars.”  This military maxim has been well understood as, without resupply of food, water, ammunition, spare parts, medical supplies, fuel, etc., combat operations cannot be sustained for more than a few days. 

In the military defense sector, making a timely and consistent resupply is imperative to success. Doing that over a distance of more than 8,000 nautical miles is a Herculean task, but that is what is confronting US defense planners as they plan for a potential near-peer conflict in Asia.

Defense Across Vast Distances

Historically, US-flagged merchant marine vessels have played a critical role in deploying and sustaining US troops operating abroad, but the fleet has contracted by 94% from 1960 to 2024 (in raw figures from 2,926 to 185 ships as reported by WSJ).  In 2003, for the second Gulf War, the US needed 165 ships to deploy and sustain its forces. That's a 5,000+ nautical-mile trip that was made uncontested via the Atlantic Ocean. The Asian theater is a considerably further distance, in which shipping routes are likely to be contested most of the way. 

If a conflict arises in the South China Sea, planners estimate that the United States will require a fleet of 100 ships to continuously supply fuel to US forces, but there is only guaranteed access to 10 such ships. As a stop-gap measure, the US Navy is working to develop modular fuel transportation systems that can be affixed to other types of ships, but that comes with serious trade-offs in terms of capacity, logistical complexity, and realistic staying power.

Signals Suggest a Higher Demand for Shipbuilding

The US national defense posture has been shifting from fighting the Global War on Terror to preparing to confront China in a near-peer conflict far from US soil. The next US presidential administration (and the ones that follow for the foreseeable future) will need to work diligently to address these shortcomings and that will mean increased military spending. For those in position to capitalize on the demand, it will mean a robust cycle for shipbuilding within the United States and in allied countries.